#jobblog
Job Market Swagger Belies a Soggy Bottom
There’s nothing like the monthly jobs stats from the nattily-titled Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) to get us data nerds excited.
This month they’ve painted a “could do better” picture of the labour market despite, as usual, going out of their way to point out that really, “we could be a lot worse”.
With the confidence of a 17-year old behind the wheel on their way home from a successful driving test, they’ve just announced that unemployment here stands at 5.7% of the working age population, 0.3% down on the same time last year.
I know, means nothing without context, so here’s some.
That 5.7% compares to 4.7% for the UK as a whole and is the second-highest rate of all UK regions, although you have to go digging into the NISRA release to find that out.
Then there is economic inactivity, a measure of the labour market which politicians have previously tried to sweep under the carpet but have been forced to address because those pesky journalists and economists keep bringing it up.
For the uninitiated, economic inactivity is the percentage of the population of working age who choose not to work.
That could be students, retired people, home makers or long-term sick and here in Northern Ireland it remains at a stubbornly high level of 26.2%.
Again, that means nothing without the context which in this case compares to a UK average of 21.6% and is the lowest level of all UK regions.
So really, we’re lagging way behind, a situation the Northern Ireland economy once again finds itself on a number of different areas, not just the labour market.
However, were we to have an economy minister at the moment (seems like a luxury these days), he or she would be shouting “But wait, wait! Look over there!”
They’re pointing to the Republic where unemployment is way above ours at 7.2% and to the European Union (we’re still part of it, aren’t we?) at 8.2%.
Push them a little further and they’ll maybe even bring up the yoof in the likely destination for your summer holiday.
Greece, for instance, has an unemployment rate amongst 16 to 24-year olds of – wait for it – 44.2% while Spain isn’t far behind at 42.9%.
Bonkers, you’re probably thinking and you’re not wrong.
Now you’re thinking little old Northern Ireland isn’t in such a bad situation, and you’re be right, in some ways.
But what happens in the next few months and years will dictate where the labour market goes next because we have the twin terrors of Brexit and inflation to deal with.
They are two words which will have any right thinking company putting the hand brake on hiring.
But then again we live in unprecedented times so maybe, just maybe these predictions of job market gloom will go the same way as the predictions of doom the preceded the referendum vote.
In reality, no one really knows, all we can do is make the best of the markets we face today.
Like a wheel barrow, it’s all in front of us.
JobCast
by David Elliott
by David Elliott
Every week, David will give us his roundup of what’s happening in the recruitment market.
This week we look at the market in Northern Ireland, employment stats and more!